It is widely believed the Liberals would rather test their government on the budget -- a scenario in which they could blame the Opposition for voting against promised spending on social programs, cities and the environment.
If all MPs are present for the budget vote, and the Liberal-NDP block can secure the support of all three Independents, then the vote would be a 153-153 tie with the Conservatives and Bloc Quebecois.
In that case, the Speaker would cast the deciding vote.
The rest here.
I still don't know how I'll vote if an election is called. I'm simply not a Conservative. Nor am I a NDP leftie.
Stephen Harper seems to assume that votes will come his way if an election is held. That presumes that folks, (especially in Ontario and the Maritimes) would replace disgust with Liberal corruption with Conservative policies. Just because people are angry with the Liberals doesn't necessarily mean that they want huge tax cuts at the expense of social programs.
I think the NDP has a lot to gain, especially in Ontario. But, of course, the NDP has a history of shooting themselves in the foot, federally. As if winning was a moral failing.