Tuesday, May 10, 2005

Confidence Vote Today

It is widely believed the Liberals would rather test their government on the budget -- a scenario in which they could blame the Opposition for voting against promised spending on social programs, cities and the environment.

If all MPs are present for the budget vote, and the Liberal-NDP block can secure the support of all three Independents, then the vote would be a 153-153 tie with the Conservatives and Bloc Quebecois.

In that case, the Speaker would cast the deciding vote.

The rest here.

I still don't know how I'll vote if an election is called. I'm simply not a Conservative. Nor am I a NDP leftie.

Stephen Harper seems to assume that votes will come his way if an election is held. That presumes that folks, (especially in Ontario and the Maritimes) would replace disgust with Liberal corruption with Conservative policies. Just because people are angry with the Liberals doesn't necessarily mean that they want huge tax cuts at the expense of social programs.

I think the NDP has a lot to gain, especially in Ontario. But, of course, the NDP has a history of shooting themselves in the foot, federally. As if winning was a moral failing.

1 comment:

Michael J.W. Stickings said...

Hey there. Fellow Canadian blogger here:


I just came across your blog the other day. Excellent work. Check mine out -- it's a fairly liberal blog on politics, philosophy, and culture.

For conflict-of-interest reasons (I work for the Govt. of Ontario), I don't comment much on Canadian politics, but you're right: In the end, I just don't think Canadians are prepared to turf out the Liberals. Despite all the corruption, and the sense of exhaustion among the electorate, there is a Liberal consensus in Canada. It's interesting that Harper has moved his party to the centre-right -- in fact, he's made it quite Liberal in some regards. But I wonder if the Gomery factor won't be trumped by the fear factor: Do Canadians really trust Harper? Or, rather, do they trust his party, given that it's still more or less the residue of the old Reform/Alliance?

The Conservatives have no chance in my downtown Toronto riding. Like you, I'm not sure how I'll vote, but I suspect I'll stick with the Liberals. Centre-right Toryism (Joe Clark, John Tory) appeals to me, but Harper's moderate rhetoric can't mask the extremism that animates much of his party's grassroots.