Tony Blair's Big Test: Election Day in Britain

LONDON - Tony Blair is facing his toughest test since becoming British prime minister, with voters casting their ballots in a general election today.

(read the rest from cbc)

Tony Blair will probably win. But it is unclear whether it will be a minority or a thin majority. I still think this will be his last election.

If/when he wins, Blair loyalists will probably do what Chretienites did suggest that it was his leadership saavy that led the party to three consecutive victories. Forgetting that the opposition was in disarray during the 1997 and 2000 elections. Right wing vote splitting was endemic. Folks east of Manitoba couldn't buy into the Reform/Alliance vision. Stockwell Day was feared, if not loathed, in the east. The Liberals captitalized on that fear by mis-representing the Alliance's policy on health care.

In this election, the Conservatives are too far to the right to capture any new mainstream votes. The Liberal-Democrats are still too new. The Greens are just too nutty.

Also, most of Blair's opposition is coming from the anti-war left, so the progressive side of British politics may be the biggest winner in this election.